An alternative approach to explaining political popularity

Holden, K. and Peel, David (1985) An alternative approach to explaining political popularity. Electoral Studies, 4 (3). pp. 231-239. ISSN 0261-3794

Abstract

Previous empirical work on the relationship between political popularity and economic events has either not attempted to model the alternative policies of the different parties, or has modelled them in a rather simplistic manner. It has also typically assumed that voters are backward-looking in contrast to recent work on expectations theory. An approach is outlined which is based on a forward-looking comparison of the parties and incorporates the effect of news. An alternative derivation relying on the evaluation of the stock of goodwill built up for each party is also suggested. Empirical evidence from the Gallup opinion poll provides some support for these hypotheses.