Forecast evaluation of nonlinear models : the case of long-span real exchange rates

Pavlidis, Efthymios and Paya, Ivan and Peel, David (2012) Forecast evaluation of nonlinear models : the case of long-span real exchange rates. Journal of Forecasting, 31 (7). pp. 580-595. ISSN 0277-6693

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This paper deals with the nonlinear modeling and forecasting of the dollar–sterling and franc–sterling real exchange rates using long spans of data. Our contribution is threefold. First, we provide significant evidence of smooth transition dynamics in the series by employing a battery of recently developed in-sample statistical tests. Second, we investigate the small-sample properties of several evaluation measures for comparing recursive forecasts when one of the competing models is nonlinear. Finally, we run a forecasting race for the post-Bretton Woods era between the nonlinear real exchange rate model, the random walk, and the linear autoregressive model. The nonlinear model outperforms all rival models in the dollar–sterling case but cannot beat the linear autoregressive in the franc–sterling.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Journal of Forecasting
Uncontrolled Keywords:
?? real exchange ratenonlinearity robust linearity tests forecast evaluation bootstrappingeconomicsmodelling and simulationstrategy and managementmanagement science and operations researchstatistics, probability and uncertaintycomputer science applicationshb ??
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Deposited On:
09 Jul 2012 09:30
Last Modified:
09 Dec 2023 01:15