A hierarchical model for real-time monitoring of variation in risk of non-specific gastrointestinal infections

Kaimi, I. and Diggle, P. J. (2011) A hierarchical model for real-time monitoring of variation in risk of non-specific gastrointestinal infections. Epidemiology and Infection, 139 (12). pp. 1854-1862. ISSN 0950-2688

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The AEGISS (Ascertainment and Enhancement of Disease Surveillance and Statistics) project uses spatio-temporal statistical methods to identify anomalies in the incidence of gastrointestinal infections in the UK. The focus of this paper is the modelling of temporal variation in incidence using data from the Southampton area in southern England. We identified and fitted a hierarchical stochastic model for the time series of daily incident cases to enable probabilistic prediction of temporal variation in risk, and demonstrated the resulting gains in predictive accuracy by comparison with a conventional analysis based on an over-dispersed Poisson log-linear regression model. We used Bayesian methods of inference in order to incorporate parameter uncertainty in our predictive inference of risk. Incorporation of our model in the overall spatio-temporal model, will contribute to the accurate and timely prediction of unusually high food-poisoning incidence, and thus to the identification and prevention of future outbreaks.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Epidemiology and Infection
Additional Information:
http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayJournal?jid=HYG The final, definitive version of this article has been published in the Journal, Epidemiology and Infection, 139 (12), pp 1854-1862 2011, © 2011 Cambridge University Press.
Uncontrolled Keywords:
?? gastrointestinal infectionsmathematical modellingpreventioncox processesseriescountshealth information, computation and statisticsinfectious diseasesepidemiology ??
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Deposited On:
16 Dec 2011 16:32
Last Modified:
27 Nov 2023 00:10