Modelling tactical changes of formation in association football as a zero-sum game

Hirotsu, N and Wright, M B (2005) Modelling tactical changes of formation in association football as a zero-sum game. Working Paper. The Department of Management Science, Lancaster University.

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Abstract

This paper proposes a game theoretic approach to modelling tactical changes of formation in an association football match. We use a Poisson regression model to evaluate the offensive and defensive strengths of the formations of teams for scoring or conceding a goal by means of the maximum likelihood method. We then develop a mathematical formulation to express quantitatively the tactical changes of formation as a zero-sum game by taking account of both teams’ decisions. We demonstrate how the managers’ decisions affect the probability of winning the match using real data of the J League, by showing the four cases of the quality of both managers’ decisions, depending on whether they each use their best or worst strategies.

Item Type:
Monograph (Working Paper)
Uncontrolled Keywords:
/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/aacsb/disciplinebasedresearch
Subjects:
ID Code:
48797
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
11 Jul 2011 21:13
Refereed?:
No
Published?:
Published
Last Modified:
31 Oct 2020 08:08