A dynamic programming approach to finding optimal pitcher substitution strategies in a baseball game

Hirotsu, N and Wright, M B (2003) A dynamic programming approach to finding optimal pitcher substitution strategies in a baseball game. Working Paper. The Department of Management Science, Lancaster University.

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Abstract

This paper proposes a method for identifying the optimal strategy for substituting pitchers in a baseball game played not under the Designated Hitter rule. Using a Markov Chain model we incorporate the effect of the defensive ability of pitchers using Earned Run Average (ERA) as a measure, and develop a dynamic programming formulation to evaluate the effect of pitcher substitution. The method is illustrated using a match based on the real line-ups of the Colorado Rockies and the San Francisco Giants in the National League of Major League Baseball. We show how this approach may help to determine when to make a substitution and how much the probability of winning increases if the optimal strategy is followed.

Item Type:
Monograph (Working Paper)
Uncontrolled Keywords:
/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/aacsb/disciplinebasedresearch
Subjects:
ID Code:
48644
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
11 Jul 2011 21:04
Refereed?:
No
Published?:
Published
Last Modified:
05 Jul 2020 01:47