Multi‐Model Impacts of Dust on African Air Quality and Mortality Under Regional and Global Anthropogenic Aerosol Changes

Amooli, Joe Adabouk and Miller, Ron L. and Tsigaridis, Kostas and Chowdhury, Sourangsu and Zhang, Yanda and Toolan, Catherine A. and Ahmadi, Sharar and Allen, Robert J. and Elling, Maxwell T. and Ekman, Annica M. L. and Fraser‐Leach, Luke and Griffiths, Paul and Keeble, James and Koshiro, Tsuyoshi and Kushner, Paul and Lewinschal, Anna and Lund, Marianne T. and MacRae, Molly and Makkonen, Risto and Merikanto, Joonas and Nazarenko, Larissa and Nabat, Pierre and O'Donnell, Declan and Oshima, Naga and Persad, Geeta and Rumbold, Steven T. and von Salzen, Knut and Samset, Bjørn H. and Swart, Neil C. and Takemura, Toshihiko and Wilcox, Laura J. and Westervelt, Daniel M. (2026) Multi‐Model Impacts of Dust on African Air Quality and Mortality Under Regional and Global Anthropogenic Aerosol Changes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 131 (9): e2025JD046. ISSN 0747-7309

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Abstract

Plain Language Summary: Future reductions in human‐caused aerosol emissions are expected to lower the concentrations of PM2.5 (fine particles smaller than 2.5 μm), but climate responses from the reductions can also alter natural dust emissions, which may offset or enhance these improvements. Using climate model simulations, we examined how reductions in regional and global human‐caused emissions affect African air quality, including the role of climate‐driven changes in dust. By 2050, reductions in African and global human‐caused emissions lead to the largest decreases in PM2.5 across the continent. Human‐caused emission reductions in the United States and Europe also reduce PM2.5 in Africa by modifying large‐scale atmospheric circulation and long‐range transport of pollution. In the Sahara and Namib deserts, changes in dust accounts for up to 70% of total PM2.5 changes, while in West and East Africa, climate‐driven increases in dust can offset up to 20% of air quality improvements. Overall, global and Africa‐wide human‐caused emission reductions could prevent about 96,000 and 84,000 PM2.5‐related deaths by 2050, though dust feedbacks may modify the magnitude of these health benefits.