Multiscale Pollution Risk and Mitigation Modelling to Inform Efficacy of Nature-Based Solutions

Hankin, Barry and Champion, Hannah and Strömqvist, Johan and Burgess, Chris and Newton, Tom and May, Sharon and Smith, Paul J. and Robinson, Peter J. and Warren, Sarah and Wood, Nicola and Wood, Elizabeth and Johnes, Penny J. and Binley, Andrew (2026) Multiscale Pollution Risk and Mitigation Modelling to Inform Efficacy of Nature-Based Solutions. Water, 18 (8): 906. ISSN 2073-4441

Abstract

There is increasing interest in delivering greater resilience to climate change through integrated catchment management that includes Nature-based Solutions (NbS) such as riparian buffer strips, tree-planting and wetlands. Governmental organisations also seek to use water quality modelling to understand the mass of different pollutants avoided per feature for appraisal of nutrient-neutrality purposes, but the assessment of efficacy is not yet fully developed, nor is it clear what it implies at the catchment-scale. We introduce three open, freely distributable models to help understanding efficacy and risk-reduction of buffer-strips at the plot (JUMP), waterbody (Fieldmouse), and national (HYPE) scales to help understand risk-reduction and help objectively quantify improvements in catchment resilience. These approaches have been developed across a range of projects but are also being investigated in more detail as part of the modelling element to the NERC Freshwater Quality programme QUANTUM project. Here we report how the particle tracking model predicts the need for very slow velocities, high loss rates or other processes to achieve buffer strip efficacies in common use—slowing the flow alone is unlikely to achieve these results. Upscaling these results to the catchment scale on the Yeo highlights another significant concept, that of the need to define a catchment scale efficacy for a particular Nature-based Solution, given the practicalities of implementation. We demonstrate how HYPE can be used to target and model mitigations and permits both upscaling nationally and through-time source apportionment to help identify when design efficacies may not be achieved in practice.