Speculation for RE : Addressing Unanticipated Consequence

Darby, Andrew and Sawyer, Peter and Bencomo, Nelly (2026) Speculation for RE : Addressing Unanticipated Consequence. Information and Software Technology, 193: 108011. ISSN 0950-5849

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Abstract

Context Software innovations frequently lead to unanticipated consequences with significant impacts, a problem exacerbated by emerging technologies and inherent uncertainty in problem domains. Traditional Requirements Engi-neering (RE) practices are often inadequate for addressing this complexity. Our work is motivated by the need to prefigure emergent properties early in the development process to mitigate such risks. Objectives This paper introduces the Consequences and Futures Model, a conceptual framework designed to help software development teams better understand the potential impacts of software innovations at the pre-design phase. The overarching goal is to equip developers with techniques to facili-tate proactive risk evaluation and mitigation planning. Methods The model draws on three real-world case studies of software sys-tems with unintended consequences: the UK Post Office’s Horizon system, Apple’s AirTags, and DJI drones in Ukraine. The model draws on exist-ing research outwith the Software Engineering domain, which was evaluated through three qualitative workshops using speculative strategies to provoke forward-thinking analysis. Results The workshops successfully demonstrated the model’s potential to help participants understand technology’s potential impacts and identify areas for further exploration. The model encouraged development teams to consider design decision consequences from multiple perspectives: the orga-nization, users and non-users, the technology itself, and the wider world. It prompted teams to explore both probable and plausible futures using spec-ulative strategies. The model stimulated creativity, aiding participants in aligning their understanding of subject technologies and broadening their perspective on social implications. Conclusions The Consequences and Futures Model enhances RE by in-tegrating Speculative Design techniques to address the risks of innovation. It offers structured exercises for exploring a problem space beyond tradi-tional requirements gathering. While not predictive, it supports imaginative scenario-building to uncover hidden risks. The model’s operationalisation is preliminary and we outline a lightweight protocol for practitioner use. Inte-gration into RE processes is left to future work.