Heterogeneous node responses to multi-type epidemics on networks

Moore, Sam and Rogers, Tim (2020) Heterogeneous node responses to multi-type epidemics on networks. PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES, 476 (2243): 20200587.

Abstract

Having knowledge of the contact network over which an infection is spreading opens the possibility of making individualized predictions for the likelihood of different nodes to become infected. When multiple infective strains attempt to spread simultaneously we may further ask which strain, or strains, are most likely to infect a particular node. In this article we investigate the heterogeneity in likely outcomes for different nodes in two models of multi-type epidemic spreading processes. For models allowing co-infection we derive message-passing equations whose solution captures how the likelihood of a given node receiving a particular infection depends on both the position of the node in the network and the interaction between the infection types. For models of competing epidemics in which co-infection is impossible, a more complicated analysis leads to the simpler result that node vulnerability factorizes into a contribution from the network topology and a contribution from the infection parameters.