BALLAST: Bayesian Active Learning with Look-ahead Amendment for Sea-drifter Trajectories under Spatio-Temporal Vector Fields

Zhang, Rui-Yang and Moss, Henry and Astfalck, Lachlan and Cripps, Edward and Leslie, David (2025) BALLAST: Bayesian Active Learning with Look-ahead Amendment for Sea-drifter Trajectories under Spatio-Temporal Vector Fields. Working Paper. UNSPECIFIED.

Abstract

We introduce a formal active learning methodology for guiding the placement of Lagrangian observers to infer time-dependent vector fields -- a key task in oceanography, marine science, and ocean engineering -- using a physics-informed spatio-temporal Gaussian process surrogate model. The majority of existing placement campaigns either follow standard `space-filling' designs or relatively ad-hoc expert opinions. A key challenge to applying principled active learning in this setting is that Lagrangian observers are continuously advected through the vector field, so they make measurements at different locations and times. It is, therefore, important to consider the likely future trajectories of placed observers to account for the utility of candidate placement locations. To this end, we present BALLAST: Bayesian Active Learning with Look-ahead Amendment for Sea-drifter Trajectories. We observe noticeable benefits of BALLAST-aided sequential observer placement strategies on both synthetic and high-fidelity ocean current models.