Nationally localized strategies for zero-carbon municipal solid waste management

Gu, Binxian and Zhang, Mange and Zhou, Minmin and Fu, Haixia and Hu, Qingsong and Gu, Chuanhui and Wang, Yifei and Fujiwara, Takeshi and Liu, Lingxuan and Zuo, Wengang and Li, Yunlong and Wang, Zhigang and Jiang, Wei and Bai, Yanchao (2025) Nationally localized strategies for zero-carbon municipal solid waste management. Nature Sustainability. ISSN 2398-9629

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Abstract

Strategies for achieving net-zero emissions in municipal solid waste (MSW) management are crucial for a sustainable society, but insights that can guide global policy-making are still scarce. Here we provide a holistic view on this topic on a global scale. We first evaluated the spatiotemporal differences in global and national MSW-related emissions in 195 countries or regions between 1980 and 2022, and determined the spatiotemporal heterogeneity and drivers of global and national MSW-related greenhouse gas emissions. Then we performed prospective scenario-based simulations and found that all countries can achieve net zero in MSW management by 2100, but tailored measures are needed. We finally explored the strategies and challenges associated with achieving net zero via 1,024 scenarios while considering the combination of several measures from a local perspective. The results suggest that most developing countries should adjust their treatment measures and/or upgrade their technologies, whereas developed regions can achieve net zero with a single measure, particularly recycling, which has substantial mitigation potential. These insights can help to develop localized MSW management strategies for different countries and eventually contribute to achieving the net-zero target globally.