Tipping Points of Amazonian Forests : Beyond Myths and Toward Solutions

Brando, Paulo M. and Barlow, Jos and Macedo, Marcia N. and Silvério, Divino V. and Ferreira, Joice N. and Maracahipes, Leandro and Anderson, Liana and Morton, Douglas C. and Alencar, Ane and Paolucci, Lucas N. and Jacobs, Sarah and Stouter, Hannah and Randerson, Jim and Flores, Bernardo M. and Starinchak, Bela and Coe, Michael and Pires, Mathias M. and Rattis, Ludmila and Armenteras, Dolors and Artaxo, Paulo and Ordway, Elsa M. and Trumbore, Susan and Staver, Carla and Berenguer, Erika and Menor, Imma Oliveras and Maracahipes-Santos, Leonardo and Potter, Nathalia and Spracklen, Dominick V. and Uribe, Maria (2025) Tipping Points of Amazonian Forests : Beyond Myths and Toward Solutions. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 50. ISSN 1543-5938

Abstract

Amazon forests are undergoing rapid transformations driven by deforestation, climate change, fire, and other anthropogenic pressures, leading to the hypothesis that they may be nearing a catastrophic tipping point—beyond which ecosystems could shift to a permanently altered state. This review revisits the concept of an Amazon tipping point and assesses the risk of forest collapse from an ecological perspective. We synthesize evidence showing that environmental stressors can drive critical ecosystem transitions, either gradually through incremental loss of resilience or abruptly via synergistic feedbacks. The interplay between climate and land-use change amplifies risks to biodiversity, ecosystem services, and livelihoods. Yet, there is limited evidence for a single, system-wide tipping point. Instead, the Amazon's resilience—although not unlimited—offers meaningful pathways for recovery. The most immediate and effective strategies to support this resilience include slowing forest loss, mitigating climate change, reducing fire activity, curbing defaunation, and restoring degraded ecosystems. Without decisive action to address direct threats, the Amazon system may be pushed beyond safe ecological-climatological operating limits—even in the absence of sharply defined thresholds—due to the scale and persistence of anthropogenic pressures. Preserving the Amazon's ecological integrity and its vital role in regulating the global climate requires urgent, sustained conservation efforts in collaboration with local and Indigenous communities.