How the effects of climate change will impact the maritime security of the Indo-Pacific

Brennan, James and Germond, Basil and Chubb, Andrew (2025) How the effects of climate change will impact the maritime security of the Indo-Pacific. PhD thesis, Lancaster University.

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Abstract

This thesis investigates the impacts of climate change on the maritime security of the Indo-Pacific. This research evaluates and adapts a cumulative effect assessment (CEA) framework to identify the pathways the effects of climate change will take to impact on maritime security and the securitisation of the Indo-Pacific region. In order to develop this revised CEA in the thesis, the research has developed an understanding of these complex interactions, incorporating quantitative and qualitative data from both social and natural sciences. In doing this, the feasibility of using social CEA analysis to understand the impacts of climate change was evaluated and explored. The use of unscripted interviews with practitioners, policymakers, and expert academics, supplemented the desk reviews of academic and grey literature. The research undertaken for this thesis shows the complex and interconnected nature of the impacts of climate change on maritime security. It also shows the value of a multidisciplinary approach when analysing climate change and maritime security and developing interventions to mitigate these impacts. The way the effects of climate change will impact maritime security, are many and varied and will have implications for the current geostrategic competition in the Indo-Pacific. This research highlights the importance of the environmental dimension of maritime security and the role it plays in underpinning all the other dimensions of maritime security. It also demonstrates the important role of maritime security within the current geostrategic competition playing out in the Indo-Pacific. It then sets out how the impacts of climate change on maritime security will affect and interact with the current geostrategic competition within the Indo-Pacific.