Tropical forests in the Americas are changing too slowly to track climate change

Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Jesús and Díaz, Sandra and Rifai, Sami W and Corral-Rivas, Jose Javier and Nava-Miranda, Maria Guadalupe and González-M, Roy and Hurtado-M, Ana Belén and Revilla, Norma Salinas and Vilanova, Emilio and Almeida, Everton and de Oliveira, Edmar Almeida and Alvarez-Davila, Esteban and Alves, Luciana F and de Andrade, Ana Cristina Segalin and Lola da Costa, Antonio Carlos and Vieira, Simone Aparecida and Aragão, Luiz and Arets, Eric and Aymard C, Gerardo A and Baccaro, Fabrício and Bakker, Yvonne Vanessa and Baker, Timothy R and Bánki, Olaf and Baraloto, Christopher and de Camargo, Plínio Barbosa and Berenguer, Erika and Blanc, Lilian and Bonal, Damien and Bongers, Frans and Bordin, Kauane Maiara and Brienen, Roel and Brown, Foster and Prestes, Nayane Cristina C S and Castilho, Carolina V and Ribeiro, Sabina Cerruto and de Souza, Fernanda Coelho and Comiskey, James A and Valverde, Fernando Cornejo and Müller, Sandra Cristina and da Costa Silva, Richarlly and do Vale, Julio Daniel and de Andrade Kamimura, Vitor and de Oliveira Perdiz, Ricardo and Del Aguila Pasquel, Jhon and Derroire, Géraldine and Di Fiore, Anthony and Disney, Mathias and Farfan-Rios, William and Fauset, Sophie and Feldpausch, Ted R and Ramos, Rafael Flora and Llampazo, Gerardo Flores and Martins, Valéria Forni and Fortunel, Claire and Cabrera, Karina Garcia and Barroso, Jorcely Gonçalves and Hérault, Bruno and Herrera, Rafael and Honorio Coronado, Eurídice N and Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau and Pipoly, John J and Zanini, Katia Janaina and Jiménez, Eliana and Joly, Carlos A and Kalamandeen, Michelle and Klipel, Joice and Levesley, Aurora and Oviedo, Wilmar Lopez and Magnusson, William E and Dos Santos, Rubens Manoel and Marimon, Beatriz Schwantes and Marimon-Junior, Ben Hur and de Almeida Reis, Simone Matias and Melo Cruz, Omar Aurelio and Mendoza, Abel Monteagudo and Morandi, Paulo and Muscarella, Robert and Nascimento, Henrique and Neill, David A and Menor, Imma Oliveras and Palacios, Walter A and Palacios-Ramos, Sonia and Pallqui Camacho, Nadir Carolina and Pardo, Guido and Pennington, R Toby and de Oliveira Pereira, Luciana and Pickavance, Georgia and Picolotto, Rayana Caroline and Pitman, Nigel C A and Prieto, Adriana and Quesada, Carlos and Ramírez-Angulo, Hirma and Réjou-Méchain, Maxime and Correa, Zorayda Restrepo and Reyna Huaymacari, José Manuel and Rodriguez, Carlos Reynel and Rivas-Torres, Gonzalo and Roopsind, Anand and Rudas, Agustín and Salgado Negret, Beatriz and van der Sande, Masha T and Santana, Flávia Delgado and Maës Santos, Flavio Antonio and Bergamin, Rodrigo Scarton and Silman, Miles R and Silva, Camila and Espejo, Javier Silva and Silveira, Marcos and Souza, Fernanda Cristina and Sullivan, Martin J P and Swamy, Varun and Talbot, Joey and Terborgh, John J and van der Meer, Peter J and van der Heijden, Geertje and van Ulft, Bert and Martinez, Rodolfo Vasquez and Vedovato, Laura and Vleminckx, Jason and Vos, Vincent Antoine and Wortel, Verginia and Zuidema, Pieter A and Zwerts, Joeri A and Laurance, Susan G W and Laurance, William F and Chave, Jerôme and Dalling, James W and Barlow, Jos and Poorter, Lourens and Enquist, Brian J and Ter Steege, Hans and Phillips, Oliver L and Galbraith, David and Malhi, Yadvinder (2025) Tropical forests in the Americas are changing too slowly to track climate change. Science, 387 (6738): eadl5414. ISSN 0036-8075

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Abstract

Understanding the capacity of forests to adapt to climate change is of pivotal importance for conservation science, yet this is still widely unknown. This knowledge gap is particularly acute in high-biodiversity tropical forests. Here, we examined how tropical forests of the Americas have shifted community trait composition in recent decades as a response to changes in climate. Based on historical trait-climate relationships, we found that, overall, the studied functional traits show shifts of less than 8% of what would be expected given the observed changes in climate. However, the recruit assemblage shows shifts of 21% relative to climate change expectation. The most diverse forests on Earth are changing in functional trait composition but at a rate that is fundamentally insufficient to track climate change.