Controlling endemic foot-and-mouth disease : Vaccination is more important than movement bans. A simulation study in the Republic of Turkey

Guyver-Fletcher, G. and Gorsich, E.E. and Jewell, C. and Tildesley, M.J. (2025) Controlling endemic foot-and-mouth disease : Vaccination is more important than movement bans. A simulation study in the Republic of Turkey. Infectious Disease Modelling, 10 (2). pp. 702-715. ISSN 2468-0427

Abstract

In this article we present a spatially-explicit stochastic metapopulation model to simulate the spread and control of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in an endemic setting. We parameterise and validate the model using detailed outbreak data from the Republic of Turkey, 2001–2012. Subsequently, we assess the efficacy of ring vaccination, mass vaccination, and livestock movement restrictions with regards to incidence-reduction and likelihood of eradication. Key findings show that ring vaccination and mass vaccination are most effective for controlling endemic FMD; livestock movement controls do not lead to eradication on average. Combined biannual mass vaccination and 10 km ring vaccination around detected farms emerged as the optimal approach to maximise the probability of FMD elimination within a few years. The probability of disease detection, radius of ring vaccination, and coverage of mass vaccination are most critical to optimize for this policy. Our results suggest countries wishing to control the disease within their borders should focus on comprehensive surveillance and vaccination campaigns as their main policy goals. In summary, vaccination-based policies are more effective than movement restrictions in the endemic context.