Using fuzzy cognitive mapping to assess the sustainability impacts of transitioning to pasture-fed production in the UK beef sector

Rowe, Elizabeth and Norton, Lisa and McVittie, Alistair and Watson, Christine and Wagner, Markus and Waterton, Claire and Smith, Laurence (2025) Using fuzzy cognitive mapping to assess the sustainability impacts of transitioning to pasture-fed production in the UK beef sector. Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems, 40: e1. ISSN 1742-1705

Abstract

One hundred percent pasture-fed beef production has been suggested as a promising approach for sustainable ruminant farming, due to the potential benefits that can accrue across a range of sustainability domains. This study aimed to investigate the impacts across the four domains of sustainability of a wholesale switch from conventional to 100% pasture-fed beef production in the UK. We used fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) as a method for extracting knowledge from multiple stakeholders to create representative systems models of both conventional and pasture-based beef production systems. We then conducted a scenario analysis to assess how a switch to a pasture-fed system could affect components of sustainability in the UK beef sector. The FCMs indicated that vegetation quality, grass use efficiency, and soil health were central components of the pasture-fed approach, while economic and regulatory aspects, and climate change targets were more central to mainstream production approaches. The most marked changes under the 100% conversion scenario were an increase in income from subsidies (27.3%) in line with ‘public money for public goods’, a decrease in ability to export beef (unless advice to reduce consumption of animal protein is followed) (23.5%), a decrease in land used for farming vs other uses (e.g., natural capital) (11.23%), and a decrease in the use of feed from agricultural co/byproducts (7.5%), freeing up these feed sources for more sustainable monogastric production. Therefore, the mapping and scenario analysis suggests that while upscaling the pasture-fed approach may reduce productivity, it would likely increase public goods provision and reduce feed–food competition in the UK.