Ethnic diversity and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa : Evidence from refugee-hosting areas

Bertinelli, L. and Cömertpay, R. and Maystadt, J.-F. (2025) Ethnic diversity and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa : Evidence from refugee-hosting areas. Journal of Development Economics, 172: 103393. ISSN 0304-3878

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Abstract

This study explores how forced migration affects ethnic diversity and conflict in 23 Sub-Saharan African countries from 2005 to 2016. Using UNHCR data on refugee camp locations, we predict changes in local ethnic diversity. By integrating Afrobarometer and Ethnic Power Relations-Ethnicity of Refugees datasets, we analyse the link between refugee-induced diversity and conflict occurrence. Findings indicate that refugee-induced polarization increases the risk of local violence, while fractionalization has a mitigating effect. Notably, the number of refugees does not impact the likelihood of conflict; instead, alterations in ethnic diversity, especially polarization, emerge as the primary driver of conflict.