Terrorism and education : Evidence from instrumental variables estimators

Alfano, Marco and Goerlach, Joseph-Simon (2024) Terrorism and education : Evidence from instrumental variables estimators. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 39 (5). pp. 906-925. ISSN 0883-7252

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Abstract

SummaryThis paper estimates the effect of exposure to terrorist violence on education. Since terrorists may choose targets endogenously, we construct a set of novel instruments. To that end, we leverage exogenous variation from a local terrorist group's revenues and its affiliation with al‐Qaeda. Across several Kenyan datasets, we find that attacks suppress school enrolment more than predicted by difference‐in‐differences‐type estimators. This indicates that terrorists target areas experiencing unobserved, positive shocks. Evidence suggests fears and concerns as mechanisms of impact, rather than educational supply.