UPH Problem 20 – reducing uncertainty in model prediction: a model invalidation approach based on a Turing-like test

Beven, Keith and Page, Trevor and Smith, Paul and Kretzschmar, Ann and Hankin, Barry and Chappell, Nick (2024) UPH Problem 20 – reducing uncertainty in model prediction: a model invalidation approach based on a Turing-like test. Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 385. pp. 129-134. ISSN 2199-899X

Abstract

This study proposes using a Turing-like test for model evaluations and invalidations based on evidence of epistemic uncertainties in event runoff coefficients. Applying the consequent “limits of acceptability” results in all the 100 000 model parameter sets being rejected. However, applying the limits, together with an allowance for timing errors, to time steps ranked by discharge, results in an ensemble of 2064 models that can be retained for predicting discharge peaks. These do not include any of the models with the highest (> 0.9) efficiencies. The analysis raises questions about the impact of epistemic errors on model simulations, and the need for both better observed data and better models.