An analysis of international tourism demand in Spain.

Young, Peter C. and Pedregal, Diego (1997) An analysis of international tourism demand in Spain. International Journal of Forecasting, 13 (4). pp. 551-556.

Abstract

Although the state-space, unobserved component approach to forecasting has many advantages, it must be applied carefully in practice and should not be used in an uncritical, ‘black box’ fashion. In particular, such an approach to the modelling and forecasting of Spanish tourism data is inappropriate and leads to misleading conclusions, particularly in relation to the uncritical selection and use of explanatory regression variables.