Discussion on “The central role of the identifying assumption in population size estimation” by Serge Aleshin-Guendel, Mauricio Sadinle, and Jon Wakefield

King, Ruth and McCrea, Rachel and Overstall, Antony (2024) Discussion on “The central role of the identifying assumption in population size estimation” by Serge Aleshin-Guendel, Mauricio Sadinle, and Jon Wakefield. Biometrics, 80 (1): ujad032. ISSN 0006-341X

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Abstract

In this discussion response, we consider some practical implications of the authors’ consideration of the no-highest-order interaction (NHOI) model for multiple systems estimation, which permits the authors to derive the explicit (albeit untestable) identifying assumption related to the unobserved (or missing) individuals. In particular, we discuss several aspects, from the standard process of model selection to potential poor predictive performance due to over-fitting and the implications of data reduction. We discuss these aspects in relation to the case study presented by the authors relating to the number of civilian casualties within the Kosovo war, and conduct further preliminary simulations to investigate these issues further. The results suggest that the NHOI models considered, despite having a potentially useful theoretical result in relation to the underlying identifying assumption, may perform poorly in practice.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Biometrics
Uncontrolled Keywords:
Research Output Funding/no_not_funded
Subjects:
?? no - not fundednostatistics and probabilitygeneral agricultural and biological sciencesgeneral biochemistry,genetics and molecular biologyapplied mathematicsgeneral immunology and microbiologygeneral medicineagricultural and biological sciences(all)bioche ??
ID Code:
217013
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
08 Apr 2024 13:35
Refereed?:
Yes
Published?:
Published
Last Modified:
09 Oct 2024 12:13