Epidemiology of Human Seasonal Coronaviruses Among People With Mild and Severe Acute Respiratory Illness in Blantyre, Malawi, 2011-2017

Kovacs, Dory and Mambule, Ivan and Read, Jonathan M and Kiran, Anmol and Chilombe, Moses and Bvumbwe, Thandiwe and Aston, Stephen and Menyere, Mavis and Masina, Mazuba and Kamzati, Moses and Ganiza, Thokozani Namale and Iuliano, Danielle and McMorrow, Meredith and Bar-Zeev, Naor and Everett, Dean and French, Neil and Ho, Antonia (2024) Epidemiology of Human Seasonal Coronaviruses Among People With Mild and Severe Acute Respiratory Illness in Blantyre, Malawi, 2011-2017. The Journal of infectious diseases, 230 (2). e363-e373. ISSN 0022-1899

Abstract

Background The aim of this study was to characterize the epidemiology of human seasonal coronaviruses (HCoVs) in southern Malawi. Methods We tested for HCoVs 229E, OC43, NL63, and HKU1 using real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) on upper respiratory specimens from asymptomatic controls and individuals of all ages recruited through severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) surveillance at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, and a prospective influenza-like illness (ILI) observational study between 2011 and 2017. We modeled the probability of having a positive PCR for each HCoV using negative binomial models, and calculated pathogen-attributable fractions (PAFs). Results Overall, 8.8% (539/6107) of specimens were positive for ≥1 HCoV. OC43 was the most frequently detected HCoV (3.1% [191/6107]). NL63 was more frequently detected in ILI patients (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR], 9.60 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 3.25–28.30]), while 229E (aIRR, 8.99 [95% CI, 1.81–44.70]) was more frequent in SARI patients than asymptomatic controls. In adults, 229E and OC43 were associated with SARI (PAF, 86.5% and 89.4%, respectively), while NL63 was associated with ILI (PAF, 85.1%). The prevalence of HCoVs was similar between children with SARI and controls. All HCoVs had bimodal peaks but distinct seasonality. Conclusions OC43 was the most prevalent HCoV in acute respiratory illness of all ages. Individual HCoVs had distinct seasonality that differed from temperate settings.