Comment on "Quantifying long-term scientific impact"

Wang, Jian and Mei, Yajun and Hicks, Diana (2014) Comment on "Quantifying long-term scientific impact". Science, 345 (6193). 149b. ISSN 0036-8075

Abstract

Wang et al. (Reports, 4 October 2013, p. 127) claimed high prediction power for their model of citation dynamics. We replicate their analysis but find discouraging results: 14.75% papers are estimated with unreasonably large μ (>5) and λ (>10) and correspondingly enormous prediction errors. The prediction power is even worse than simply using short-term citations to approximate long-term citations.