COVID-19 transmission dynamics and the impact of vaccination:modelling, analysis and simulations

Malinzi, Joseph and Juma, Victor Ogesa and Madubueze, Chinwendu Emilian and Mwaonanji, John and Nkem, Godwin Nwachukwu and Mwakilama, Elias and Mupedza, Tinashe Victor and Chiteri, Vincent Nandwa and Bakare, Emmanuel Afolabi and Moyo, Isabel Linda-Zulu and Campillo-Funollet, Eduard and Nyabadza, Farai and Madzvamuse, Anotida (2023) COVID-19 transmission dynamics and the impact of vaccination:modelling, analysis and simulations. Royal Society Open Science, 10 (7). ISSN 2054-5703

Full text not available from this repository.


Despite the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects remain a global challenge including the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region. Knowledge of the COVID-19 dynamics and its potential trends amidst variations in COVID-19 vaccine coverage is therefore crucial for policy makers in the SSA region where vaccine uptake is generally lower than in high-income countries. Using a compartmental epidemiological model, this study aims to forecast the potential COVID-19 trends and determine how long a wave could be, taking into consideration the current vaccination rates. The model is calibrated using South African reported data for the first four waves of COVID-19, and the data for the fifth wave are used to test the validity of the model forecast. The model is qualitatively analysed by determining equilibria and their stability, calculating the basic reproduction number R0 and investigating the local and global sensitivity analysis with respect to R0. The impact of vaccination and control interventions are investigated via a series of numerical simulations. Based on the fitted data and simulations, we observed that massive vaccination would only be beneficial (deaths averting) if a highly effective vaccine is used, particularly in combination with non-pharmaceutical interventions. Furthermore, our forecasts demonstrate that increased vaccination coverage in SSA increases population immunity leading to low daily infection numbers in potential future waves. Our findings could be helpful in guiding policy makers and governments in designing vaccination strategies and the implementation of other COVID-19 mitigation strategies.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Royal Society Open Science
Uncontrolled Keywords:
ID Code:
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
04 Aug 2023 11:00
Last Modified:
15 Sep 2023 01:36