Technical note: The CREDIBLE Uncertainty Estimation (CURE) toolbox: facilitating the communication of epistemic uncertainty

Page, Trevor and Smith, Paul and Beven, Keith and Pianosi, Francesca and Sarrazin, Fanny and Almeida, Susana and Holcombe, Liz and Freer, Jim and Chappell, Nick and Wagener, Thorsten (2023) Technical note: The CREDIBLE Uncertainty Estimation (CURE) toolbox: facilitating the communication of epistemic uncertainty. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 27 (13). pp. 2523-2534. ISSN 1027-5606

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Abstract

There is a general trend toward the increasing inclusion of uncertainty estimation in the environmental modelling domain. We present the Consortium on Risk in the Environment: Diagnostics, Integration, Benchmarking, Learning and Elicitation (CREDIBLE) Uncertainty Estimation (CURE) toolbox, an open-source MATLABTM toolbox for uncertainty estimation aimed at scientists and practitioners who are not necessarily experts in uncertainty estimation. The toolbox focusses on environmental simulation models and, hence, employs a range of different Monte Carlo methods for forward and conditioned uncertainty estimation. The methods included span both formal statistical and informal approaches, which are demonstrated using a range of modelling applications set up as workflow scripts. The workflow scripts provide examples of how to utilize toolbox functions for a variety of modelling applications and, hence, aid the user in defining their own workflow; additional help is provided by extensively commented code. The toolbox implementation aims to increase the uptake of uncertainty estimation methods within a framework designed to be open and explicit in a way that tries to represent best practice with respect to applying the methods included. Best practice with respect to the evaluation of modelling assumptions and choices, specifically including epistemic uncertainties, is also included by the incorporation of a condition tree that allows users to record assumptions and choices made as an audit trail log.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Uncontrolled Keywords:
/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1900/1901
Subjects:
?? general earth and planetary sciencesgeneral environmental scienceearth and planetary sciences (miscellaneous)water science and technology ??
ID Code:
199536
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
09 Aug 2023 12:25
Refereed?:
Yes
Published?:
Published
Last Modified:
15 Jul 2024 23:59