Change-point regression with a smooth additive disturbance

Pein, F. (2021) Change-point regression with a smooth additive disturbance. arXiv. ISSN 2331-8422

Abstract

We assume a nonparametric regression model with signals given by the sum of a piecewise constant function ands a smooth function. To detect the change-points and estimate the regression functions, we propose PCpluS, a combination of the fused Lasso and kernel smoothing. In contrast to existing approaches, it explicitly uses the assumption that the signal can be decomposed into a piecewise constant and a smooth function when detecting change-points. This is motivated by several applications and by theoretical results about partial linear model. Tuning parameters are selected by cross-validation. We argue that in this setting minimizing the L1-loss is superior to minimizing the L2-loss. We also highlight important consequences for cross-validation in piecewise constant change-point regression. Simulations demonstrate that our approach has a small average mean square error and detects change-points well, and we apply the methodology to genome sequencing data to detect copy number variations. Finally, we demonstrate its flexibility by combining it with smoothing splines and by proposing extensions to multivariate and filtered data