Potential risk sites and their relationship with dengue cases, Campinas municipality, Southeast Brazil

Mendes, Jessica and Vanwambeke, Sophie (2023) Potential risk sites and their relationship with dengue cases, Campinas municipality, Southeast Brazil. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases. ISSN 1935-2735

Abstract

Background Among the main activities of dengue and vector control recommended by the Ministry of Health of Brazil is the inspection and monitoring of properties identified as Strategic Points (SPs) and Special Buildings (SBs). SPs are properties associated to hazard, where there is a concentration of suitable egg-laying containers for Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, while SBs have greater importance for human exposure to the dengue virus. Objectives To investigate the effect of characteristics of the urban landscape on dengue incidence. Specifically, we tested if SPs and SBs affect dengue case distribution in Campinas, and if they do, if they affect the risk differently. We considered the period from 2013 to 2016. Methods We tested whether dengue cases were more numerous than expected in the vicinity of SPs and SBs, putative sources of risk, using the Negative Binomial models. We also tested the existence of a gradient in incidence with increasing distance to SPs and SBs by using Stone’s test. Results The Rate Ratios (RR) values were always higher closer to the SPs and SBs, and these values tended to decrease as distance from these sources increased. In general, RR values greater than one, which indicates a higher risk, were associated to the closest buffers from the SPs/SBs properties, until nearly 550 meters for the SPs and 650 meters for the SBs. Stone’s test results indicated that for all years considered, there was a correlation between the distance from the SPs/SBs and dengue cases occurrences, except for SBs from 2016. For SPs the relationship is stronger than for SBs. Discussion Results are coherent with other studies which found that these properties contribute to an increased risk of dengue transmission. We emphasize the importance of public agents’ survey work and the importance to keep and improve the inspections in SPs/SBs recorded in Campinas.