Trend estimation in extremes of synthetic North Sea surges

Butler, Adam and Heffernan, Janet E. and Tawn, Jonathan A. and Flather, Roger A. (2007) Trend estimation in extremes of synthetic North Sea surges. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics, 56 (4). pp. 395-414. ISSN 0035-9254

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Abstract

Mechanistic models for complex atmospheric and hydrological processes are often used to simulate extreme natural events, usually to quantify the risks that are associated with these events. We use novel extreme value methods to analyse the statistical properties of output from a numerical storm surge model for the North Sea. The 'model data' constitute a reconstruction of the storm surge climate for the period 1955-2000 based on a high quality meteorological data set and constitute the only available source of information on surge elevations at offshore and unmonitored coastal locations over this period. Previous studies have used extreme value methods to analyse storm surge characteristics, but we can extend and improve on these analyses by using a local likelihood approach to provide a non-parametric description of temporal and spatial variations in the magnitude and frequency of storm surge events.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics
Uncontrolled Keywords:
/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1800/1804
Subjects:
ID Code:
177751
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
18 Oct 2022 10:40
Refereed?:
Yes
Published?:
Published
Last Modified:
22 Nov 2022 11:57