Rainfall Anomalies and Typhoid Fever in Blantyre, Malawi

Gauld, Jillian S and Bilima, Sithembile and Diggle, Peter J and Feasey, Nicholas A and Read, Jonathan M (2022) Rainfall Anomalies and Typhoid Fever in Blantyre, Malawi. Epidemiology and Infection, 150. ISSN 0950-2688

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Abstract

Typhoid fever is a major cause of illness and mortality in low- and middle-income settings. We investigated the association of typhoid fever and rainfall in Blantyre, Malawi, where multi-drug-resistant typhoid has been transmitting since 2011. Peak rainfall preceded the peak in typhoid fever by approximately 15 weeks [95% confidence interval (CI) 13.3, 17.7], indicating no direct biological link. A quasi-Poisson generalised linear modelling framework was used to explore the relationship between rainfall and typhoid incidence at biologically plausible lags of 1-4 weeks. We found a protective effect of rainfall anomalies on typhoid fever, at a two-week lag ( P = 0.006), where a 10 mm lower-than-expected rainfall anomaly was associated with up to a 16% reduction in cases (95% CI 7.6, 26.5). Extreme flooding events may cleanse the environment of S. Typhi, while unusually low rainfall may reduce exposure from sewage overflow. These results add to evidence that rainfall anomalies may play a role in the transmission of enteric pathogens, and can help direct future water and sanitation intervention strategies for the control of typhoid fever.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Epidemiology and Infection
Uncontrolled Keywords:
/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2700/2713
Subjects:
ID Code:
173497
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
22 Jul 2022 11:15
Refereed?:
Yes
Published?:
Published
Last Modified:
19 Aug 2022 00:47