Multivariate spatial conditional extremes for extreme ocean environments

Shooter, Rob and Ross, Emma and Ribal, Agustinus and Young, Ian R. and Jonathan, Philip (2022) Multivariate spatial conditional extremes for extreme ocean environments. Ocean Engineering, 247. ISSN 0029-8018

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The joint extremal spatial dependence of wind speed and significant wave height in the North East Atlantic is quantified using Metop satellite scatterometer and hindcast observations for the period 2007–2018, and a multivariate spatial conditional extremes (MSCE) model, ultimately motivated by the work of Heffernan and Tawn (2004). The analysis involves (a) registering individual satellite swaths and corresponding hindcast data onto a template transect (running approximately north-east to south-west, between the British Isles and Iceland), (b) non-stationary directional-seasonal marginal extreme value analysis at a set of registration locations on the transect, (c) transformation from physical to standard Laplace scale using the fitted marginal model, (d) estimation of the MSCE model on the set of registration locations, and assessment of quality of model fit. A joint model is estimated for three spatial quantities: Metop wind speed, hindcast wind speed and hindcast significant wave height. Results suggest that, when conditioning on extreme Metop wind speed, extremal spatial dependence for all three quantities decays over approximately 600–800 km.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Ocean Engineering
Additional Information:
This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Ocean Engineering. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Ocean Engineering, 247, 2022 DOI: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.110647
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Deposited On:
09 Mar 2022 12:20
Last Modified:
21 Sep 2023 03:14