Efficient estimation of distributional properties of extreme seas from a hierarchical description applied to calculation of un-manning and other weather-related operational windows

Towe, R. and Zanini, E. and Randell, D. and Feld, G. and Jonathan, P. (2021) Efficient estimation of distributional properties of extreme seas from a hierarchical description applied to calculation of un-manning and other weather-related operational windows. Ocean Engineering, 238: 109642. ISSN 0029-8018

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Abstract

Methods of computational statistics allow efficient estimation of extreme ocean environments, and facilitate optimal operational decision making. We describe estimation of extreme quantiles of total water level and related quantities from a non-stationary hierarchical model for ocean storms. The model incorporates a directional–seasonal extreme value model for occurrences of storm peak significant wave height, a conditional directional model for within-storm evolution of sea states relative to storm peak, a conditional model for the maximum crest within a sea state, and models for total water level. Importance sampling is used for efficient computation of marginal total water level characteristics. We use the model to estimate an optimal un-manning procedure for a notional North Sea offshore structure in severe conditions.