Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19):Early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic size estimates

Read, J.M. and Bridgen, J.R.E. and Cummings, D.A.T. and Ho, A. and Jewell, C.P. (2021) Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19):Early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic size estimates. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 376 (1829). ISSN 0962-8436

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Abstract

Since it was first identified, the epidemic scale of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan, China, has increased rapidly, with cases arising across China and other countries and regions. Using a transmission model, we estimate a basic reproductive number of 3.11 (95% CI, 2.39-4.13), indicating that 58-76% of transmissions must be prevented to stop increasing. We also estimate a case ascertainment rate in Wuhan of 5.0% (95% CI, 3.6-7.4). The true size of the epidemic may be significantly greater than the published case counts suggest, with our model estimating 21 022 (prediction interval, 11 090-33 490) total infections in Wuhan between 1 and 22 January. We discuss our findings in the light of more recent information. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Uncontrolled Keywords:
/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1300
Subjects:
ID Code:
156285
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
18 Jun 2021 13:25
Refereed?:
Yes
Published?:
Published
Last Modified:
22 Nov 2021 16:31