A global-scale screening of non-native aquatic organisms to identify potentially invasive species under current and future climate conditions

Vilizzi, L. and Copp, G.H. and Hill, J.E. and Adamovich, B. and Aislabie, L. and Akin, D. and Al-Faisal, A.J. and Almeida, D. and Azmai, M.N.A. and Bakiu, R. and Bellati, A. and Bernier, R. and Bies, J.M. and Bilge, G. and Branco, P. and Bui, T.D. and Canning-Clode, J. and Cardoso Ramos, H.A. and Castellanos-Galindo, G.A. and Castro, N. and Chaichana, R. and Chainho, P. and Chan, J. and Cunico, A.M. and Curd, A. and Dangchana, P. and Dashinov, D. and Davison, P.I. and de Camargo, M.P. and Dodd, J.A. and Durland Donahou, A.L. and Edsman, L. and Ekmekçi, F.G. and Elphinstone-Davis, J. and Erős, T. and Evangelista, C. and Fenwick, G. and Ferincz, Á. and Ferreira, T. and Feunteun, E. and Filiz, H. and Forneck, S.C. and Gajduchenko, H.S. and Gama Monteiro, J. and Gestoso, I. and Giannetto, D. and Gilles A.S., Jr and Gizzi, F. and Glamuzina, B. and Glamuzina, L. and Goldsmit, J. and Gollasch, S. and Goulletquer, P. and Grabowska, J. and Harmer, R. and Haubrock, P.J. and He, D. and Hean, J.W. and Herczeg, G. and Howland, K.L. and İlhan, A. and Interesova, E. and Jakubčinová, K. and Jelmert, A. and Johnsen, S.I. and Kakareko, T. and Kanongdate, K. and Killi, N. and Kim, J.-E. and Kırankaya, Ş.G. and Kňazovická, D. and Kopecký, O. and Kostov, V. and Koutsikos, N. and Kozic, S. and Kuljanishvili, T. and Kumar, B. and Kumar, L. and Kurita, Y. and Kurtul, I. and Lazzaro, L. and Lee, L. and Lehtiniemi, M. and Leonardi, G. and Leuven, R.S.E.W. and Li, S. and Lipinskaya, T. and Liu, F. and Lloyd, L. and Lorenzoni, M. and Luna, S.A. and Lyons, T.J. and Magellan, K. and Malmstrøm, M. and Marchini, A. and Marr, S.M. and Masson, G. and Masson, L. and McKenzie, C.H. and Memedemin, D. and Mendoza, R. and Minchin, D. and Miossec, L. and Moghaddas, S.D. and Moshobane, M.C. and Mumladze, L. and Naddafi, R. and Najafi-Majd, E. and Năstase, A. and Năvodaru, I. and Neal, J.W. and Nienhuis, S. and Nimtim, M. and Nolan, E.T. and Occhipinti-Ambrogi, A. and Ojaveer, H. and Olenin, S. and Olsson, K. and Onikura, N. and O'Shaughnessy, K. and Paganelli, D. and Parretti, P. and Patoka, J. and Pavia R.T.B., Jr and Pellitteri-Rosa, D. and Pelletier-Rousseau, M. and Peralta, E.M. and Perdikaris, C. and Pietraszewski, D. and Piria, M. and Pitois, S. and Pompei, L. and Poulet, N. and Preda, C. and Puntila-Dodd, R. and Qashqaei, A.T. and Radočaj, T. and Rahmani, H. and Raj, S. and Reeves, D. and Ristovska, M. and Rizevsky, V. and Robertson, D.R. and Robertson, P. and Ruykys, L. and Saba, A.O. and Santos, J.M. and Sarı, H.M. and Segurado, P. and Semenchenko, V. and Senanan, W. and Simard, N. and Simonović, P. and Skóra, M.E. and Slovák Švolíková, K. and Smeti, E. and Šmídová, T. and Špelić, I. and Srėbalienė, G. and Stasolla, G. and Stebbing, P. and Števove, B. and Suresh, V.R. and Szajbert, B. and Ta, K.A.T. and Tarkan, A.S. and Tempesti, J. and Therriault, T.W. and Tidbury, H.J. and Top-Karakuş, N. and Tricarico, E. and Troca, D.F.A. and Tsiamis, K. and Tuckett, Q.M. and Tutman, P. and Uyan, U. and Uzunova, E. and Vardakas, L. and Velle, G. and Verreycken, H. and Vintsek, L. and Wei, H. and Weiperth, A. and Weyl, O.L.F. and Winter, E.R. and Włodarczyk, R. and Wood, L.E. and Yang, R. and Yapıcı, S. and Yeo, S.S.B. and Yoğurtçuoğlu, B. and Yunnie, A.L.E. and Zhu, Y. and Zięba, G. and Žitňanová, K. and Clarke, S. (2021) A global-scale screening of non-native aquatic organisms to identify potentially invasive species under current and future climate conditions. Science of the Total Environment, 788: 147868. ISSN 0048-9697

Abstract

The threat posed by invasive non-native species worldwide requires a global approach to identify which introduced species are likely to pose an elevated risk of impact to native species and ecosystems. To inform policy, stakeholders and management decisions on global threats to aquatic ecosystems, 195 assessors representing 120 risk assessment areas across all six inhabited continents screened 819 non-native species from 15 groups of aquatic organisms (freshwater, brackish, marine plants and animals) using the Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit. This multi-lingual decision-support tool for the risk screening of aquatic organisms provides assessors with risk scores for a species under current and future climate change conditions that, following a statistically based calibration, permits the accurate classification of species into high-, medium- and low-risk categories under current and predicted climate conditions. The 1730 screenings undertaken encompassed wide geographical areas (regions, political entities, parts thereof, water bodies, river basins, lake drainage basins, and marine regions), which permitted thresholds to be identified for almost all aquatic organismal groups screened as well as for tropical, temperate and continental climate classes, and for tropical and temperate marine ecoregions. In total, 33 species were identified as posing a ‘very high risk’ of being or becoming invasive, and the scores of several of these species under current climate increased under future climate conditions, primarily due to their wide thermal tolerances. The risk thresholds determined for taxonomic groups and climate zones provide a basis against which area-specific or climate-based calibrated thresholds may be interpreted. In turn, the risk rankings help decision-makers identify which species require an immediate ‘rapid’ management action (e.g. eradication, control) to avoid or mitigate adverse impacts, which require a full risk assessment, and which are to be restricted or banned with regard to importation and/or sale as ornamental or aquarium/fishery enhancement.