Geospatial modelling of tropical cyclone risk along the northeast coast of Oman : Marine hazard mitigation and management policies

Mansour, S. and Darby, S. and Leyland, J. and Atkinson, P.M. (2021) Geospatial modelling of tropical cyclone risk along the northeast coast of Oman : Marine hazard mitigation and management policies. Marine Policy, 129: 104544. ISSN 0308-597X

[thumbnail of Manuscript R2]
Text (Manuscript R2)
Manuscript_R2.pdf - Accepted Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.

Download (663kB)


Globally, an increasing and more dispersed population, as well as climate change, have led to growing impacts of environmental hazards, particularly across areas prone to extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclones frequently cause fatalities, damage to infrastructure, and disruption to economic activities. The north and northeast regions of Oman, particularly the Oman seacoast, are prone to the storm surges, windstorms and extreme precipitation events associated with these tropical storms. However, integrated spatial risk assessments, for the purpose of mapping cyclone risk at subnational geographic scales, have not yet been developed in this area. Here we evaluate and map cyclone risk using four independent components of risk: hazard, exposure, vulnerability and mitigation capacity. An integrated risk index was calculated using a geographical information system (GIS) and an analytical hierarchical process (AHP) technique, based on a geodatabase including 17 variables (i.e., GIS data layers) and criteria, with rank and weight scores for each criterion. The resulting risk assessment reveals the spatial variation in cyclone risk across the study area and highlights how this variation is controlled by variations in physical hazard, exposure, vulnerability and emergency preparedness. The risk maps reveal that, despite their perceived adaptive capacity for disaster mitigation, the population and assets in low-lying lands situated near the coastline in the east of Muscat, as well as the Al-Batnah south governorates, are at high risk due to cyclones. Furthermore, the coastal zones of the urban Wilayats of the Muscat governorate were also found to be at high, to very high, risk. This study has several policy implications and can provide effective guidelines for natural hazard preparedness and mitigation across the northern coasts of Oman.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Marine Policy
Additional Information:
This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Marine Policy. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Marine Policy, 129, 2021 DOI: 10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104544
Uncontrolled Keywords:
?? ahpcyclone risksgisindexmitigation policyspatial modellingenvironmental science(all)economics and econometricsaquatic sciencemanagement, monitoring, policy and lawlaw ??
ID Code:
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
20 May 2021 16:45
Last Modified:
12 Feb 2024 00:40