Biased-corrected richness estimates for the Amazonian tree flora

ter Steege, H. and Prado, P.I. and Lima, R.A.F. and Pos, E. and de Souza Coelho, L. and de Andrade Lima Filho, D. and Salomão, R.P. and Amaral, I.L. and de Almeida Matos, F.D. and Castilho, C.V. and Phillips, O.L. and Guevara, J.E. and de Jesus Veiga Carim, M. and Cárdenas López, D. and Magnusson, W.E. and Wittmann, F. and Martins, M.P. and Sabatier, D. and Irume, M.V. and da Silva Guimarães, J.R. and Molino, J.-F. and Bánki, O.S. and Piedade, M.T.F. and Pitman, N.C.A. and Ramos, J.F. and Monteagudo Mendoza, A. and Venticinque, E.M. and Luize, B.G. and Núñez Vargas, P. and Silva, T.S.F. and de Leão Novo, E.M.M. and Reis, N.F.C. and Terborgh, J. and Manzatto, A.G. and Casula, K.R. and Honorio Coronado, E.N. and Montero, J.C. and Duque, A. and Costa, F.R.C. and Castaño Arboleda, N. and Schöngart, J. and Zartman, C.E. and Killeen, T.J. and Marimon, B.S. and Marimon-Junior, B.H. and Vasquez, R. and Mostacedo, B. and Demarchi, L.O. and Feldpausch, T.R. and Engel, J. and Petronelli, P. and Baraloto, C. and Assis, R.L. and Castellanos, H. and Simon, M.F. and de Medeiros, M.B. and Quaresma, A. and Laurance, S.G.W. and Rincón, L.M. and Andrade, A. and Sousa, T.R. and Camargo, J.L. and Schietti, J. and Laurance, W.F. and de Queiroz, H.L. and Nascimento, H.E.M. and Lopes, M.A. and de Sousa Farias, E. and Magalhães, J.L.L. and Brienen, R. and Aymard C, G.A. and Revilla, J.D.C. and Vieira, I.C.G. and Cintra, B.B.L. and Stevenson, P.R. and Feitosa, Y.O. and Duivenvoorden, J.F. and Mogollón, H.F. and Araujo-Murakami, A. and Ferreira, L.V. and Lozada, J.R. and Comiskey, J.A. and de Toledo, J.J. and Damasco, G. and Dávila, N. and Lopes, A. and García-Villacorta, R. and Draper, F. and Vicentini, A. and Cornejo Valverde, F. and Lloyd, J. and Gomes, V.H.F. and Neill, D. and Alonso, A. and Dallmeier, F. and de Souza, F.C. and Gribel, R. and Arroyo, L. and Carvalho, F.A. and de Aguiar, D.P.P. and do Amaral, D.D. and Pansonato, M.P. and Feeley, K.J. and Berenguer, E. and Fine, P.V.A. and Guedes, M.C. and Barlow, J. and Ferreira, J. and Villa, B. and Peñuela Mora, M.C. and Jimenez, E.M. and Licona, J.C. and Cerón, C. and Thomas, R. and Maas, P. and Silveira, M. and Henkel, T.W. and Stropp, J. and Paredes, M.R. and Dexter, K.G. and Daly, D. and Baker, T.R. and Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, I. and Milliken, W. and Pennington, T. and Tello, J.S. and Pena, J.L.M. and Peres, C.A. and Klitgaard, B. and Fuentes, A. and Silman, M.R. and Di Fiore, A. and von Hildebrand, P. and Chave, J. and van Andel, T.R. and Hilário, R.R. and Phillips, J.F. and Rivas-Torres, G. and Noronha, J.C. and Prieto, A. and Gonzales, T. and de Sá Carpanedo, R. and Gonzales, G.P.G. and Gómez, R.Z. and de Jesus Rodrigues, D. and Zent, E.L. and Ruschel, A.R. and Vos, V.A. and Fonty, É. and Junqueira, A.B. and Doza, H.P.D. and Hoffman, B. and Zent, S. and Barbosa, E.M. and Malhi, Y. and de Matos Bonates, L.C. and de Andrade Miranda, I.P. and Silva, N. and Barbosa, F.R. and Vela, C.I.A. and Pinto, L.F.M. and Rudas, A. and Albuquerque, B.W. and Umaña, M.N. and Carrero Márquez, Y.A. and van der Heijden, G. and Young, K.R. and Tirado, M. and Correa, D.F. and Sierra, R. and Costa, J.B.P. and Rocha, M. and Vilanova Torre, E. and Wang, O. and Oliveira, A.A. and Kalamandeen, M. and Vriesendorp, C. and Ramirez-Angulo, H. and Holmgren, M. and Nascimento, M.T. and Galbraith, D. and Flores, B.M. and Scudeller, V.V. and Cano, A. and Ahuite Reategui, M.A. and Mesones, I. and Baider, C. and Mendoza, C. and Zagt, R. and Urrego Giraldo, L.E. and Ferreira, C. and Villarroel, D. and Linares-Palomino, R. and Farfan-Rios, W. and Casas, L.F. and Cárdenas, S. and Balslev, H. and Torres-Lezama, A. and Alexiades, M.N. and Garcia-Cabrera, K. and Valenzuela Gamarra, L. and Valderrama Sandoval, E.H. and Ramirez Arevalo, F. and Hernandez, L. and Sampaio, A.F. and Pansini, S. and Palacios Cuenca, W. and de Oliveira, E.A. and Pauletto, D. and Levesley, A. and Melgaço, K. and Pickavance, G. (2020) Biased-corrected richness estimates for the Amazonian tree flora. Scientific Reports, 10 (1): 10130. ISSN 2045-2322

Abstract

Amazonian forests are extraordinarily diverse, but the estimated species richness is very much debated. Here, we apply an ensemble of parametric estimators and a novel technique that includes conspecific spatial aggregation to an extended database of forest plots with up-to-date taxonomy. We show that the species abundance distribution of Amazonia is best approximated by a logseries with aggregated individuals, where aggregation increases with rarity. By averaging several methods to estimate total richness, we confirm that over 15,000 tree species are expected to occur in Amazonia. We also show that using ten times the number of plots would result in an increase to just ~50% of those 15,000 estimated species. To get a more complete sample of all tree species, rigorous field campaigns may be needed but the number of trees in Amazonia will remain an estimate for years to come. © 2020, The Author(s).