PAGE-ICE Integrated Assessment Model

Yumashev, Dmitry (2020) PAGE-ICE Integrated Assessment Model. In: Integrated Assessment Models and Others Climate Policy Tools. Oeconomia Editions. (In Press)

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The PAGE-ICE integrated assessment model (IAM) is a new version of the Policy Analysis of Greenhouse Effect (PAGE) IAM. It is a major update of the two previous versions of the model called PAGE09 and PAGE2002 (Hope 2006, 2013). PAGE-ICE includes several updates both to climate science and economics from IPCC AR5 and literature that followed, as well as novel statistical emulators of nonlinear Arctic feedbacks presented in the study "Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements" (Yumashev et al., 2019). This chapter provides a detailed overview of the updates in PAGE-ICE other than the statistical emulators of the nonlinear Arctic feedbacks, which are described in detail in the above-mentioned study (Yumashev et al., 2019). The updates in PAGE-ICE illustrate possible directions for future developments of all small-scale IAMs focusing on the total economic effect of climate change, a group of models that includes PAGE, DICE and FUND. The overarching goal of any such developments is to reduce the uncertainties in the model parameterisation according to the latest scientific results, and to make the models more transparent. Only with a constant pursuit of this goal will the indicative results from the small-scale IAMs be deemed relevant for advising on climate policy decisions. The PAGE-ICE model is one of the many necessary steps in this direction.

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24 Jun 2020 11:35
In Press
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22 Oct 2020 07:50