A spatio-temporal model for Red Sea surface temperature anomalies

Rohrbeck, Christian and Simpson, Emma and Towe, Ross (2020) A spatio-temporal model for Red Sea surface temperature anomalies. Extremes. ISSN 1386-1999

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Abstract

This paper details the approach of team Lancaster to the 2019 EVA data challenge, dealing with spatio-temporal modelling of Red Sea surface temperature anomalies. We model the marginal distributions and dependence features separately; for the former, we use a combination of Gaussian and generalised Pareto distributions, while the dependence is captured using a localised Gaussian process approach. We also propose a space-time moving estimate of the cumulative distribution function that takes into account spatial variation and temporal trend in the anomalies, to be used in those regions with limited available data. The team's predictions are compared to results obtained via an empirical benchmark. Our approach performs well in terms of the threshold-weighted continuous ranked probability score criterion, chosen by the challenge organiser.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Extremes
Uncontrolled Keywords:
/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2600/2613
Subjects:
ID Code:
144612
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
11 Jun 2020 08:59
Refereed?:
Yes
Published?:
Published
Last Modified:
22 Sep 2020 05:02