Aggregate imports and expenditure components in the UK : an empirical analysis

Abbott, Andrew James and Seddighi, Hamid (1996) Aggregate imports and expenditure components in the UK : an empirical analysis. Applied Economics, 28 (9). pp. 1119-1125. ISSN 0003-6846

Abstract

This paper examines the long-run relationship between UK aggregate imports and the macroeconomic components of final expenditure, using the Johansen multivariate cointegration analysis. It is found that there are significant differences between the long-run elasticities of import demand with respect to the different components of final expenditure, over the period 1972 to 1990. An error correction model is proposed for short-run forecasting of UK aggregate imports. The short-run model appears to track the data well.