A new hybrid method for time series forecasting:AR–ANFIS

Sarıca, Busenur and Eğrioğlu, Erol and Aşıkgil, Barış (2018) A new hybrid method for time series forecasting:AR–ANFIS. Neural Computing and Applications, 29 (3). pp. 749-760. ISSN 0941-0643

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Abstract

In this study, a new hybrid forecasting method is proposed. The proposed method is called autoregressive adaptive network fuzzy inference system (AR–ANFIS). AR–ANFIS can be shown in a network structure. The architecture of the network has two parts. The first part is an ANFIS structure and the second part is a linear AR model structure. In the literature, AR models and ANFIS are widely used in time series forecasting. Linear AR models are used according to model-based strategy. A nonlinear model is employed by using ANFIS. Moreover, ANFIS is a kind of data-based modeling system like artificial neural network. In this study, a linear and nonlinear forecasting model is proposed by creating a hybrid method of AR and ANFIS. The new method has advantages of data-based and model-based approaches. AR–ANFIS is trained by using particle swarm optimization, and fuzzification is done by using fuzzy C-Means method. AR–ANFIS method is examined on some real-life time series data, and it is compared with the other time series forecasting methods. As a consequence of applications, it is shown that the proposed method can produce accurate forecasts.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Neural Computing and Applications
Uncontrolled Keywords:
/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1700/1702
Subjects:
ID Code:
139458
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
10 Dec 2019 15:10
Refereed?:
Yes
Published?:
Published
Last Modified:
24 Nov 2020 08:11