Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict

Mach, Katharine and Kraan, Carolien and Buhaug and Burke and Fearon and Field and Hendrix and O'Loughin and Maystadt, Jean-Francois and Roessler and Schultz and von Uexkull (2019) Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict. Nature, 571. pp. 193-197. ISSN 0028-0836

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Abstract

Research findings on the relationship between climate and conflict are diverse and contested. Here we assess the current understanding of the relationship between climate and conflict, based on the structured judgments of experts from diverse disciplines. These experts agree that climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential, and the mechanisms of climate–conflict linkages remain a key uncertainty. Intensifying climate change is estimated to increase future risks of conflict.