Climate, human behaviour or environment: individual-based modelling of Campylobacter seasonality and strategies to reduce disease burden

Rushton, S.P. and Sanderson, R.A. and Diggle, P.J. and Shirley, M.D.F. and Blain, A.P. and Lake, I. and Maas, J.A. and Reid, W.D.K. and Hardstaff, J. and Williams, N. and Jones, N.R. and Rigby, D. and Strachan, N.J.C. and Forbes, K.J. and Hunter, P.R. and Humphrey, T.J. and O'Brien, S.J. (2019) Climate, human behaviour or environment: individual-based modelling of Campylobacter seasonality and strategies to reduce disease burden. Journal of Translational Medicine, 17 (1). ISSN 1479-5876

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: With over 800 million cases globally, campylobacteriosis is a major cause of food borne disease. In temperate climates incidence is highly seasonal but the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood, making human disease control difficult. We hypothesised that observed disease patterns reflect complex interactions between weather, patterns of human risk behaviour, immune status and level of food contamination. Only by understanding these can we find effective interventions. METHODS: We analysed trends in human Campylobacter cases in NE England from 2004 to 2009, investigating the associations between different risk factors and disease using time-series models. We then developed an individual-based (IB) model of risk behaviour, human immunological responses to infection and environmental contamination driven by weather and land use. We parameterised the IB model for NE England and compared outputs to observed numbers of reported cases each month in the population in 2004-2009. Finally, we used it to investigate different community level disease reduction strategies. RESULTS: Risk behaviours like countryside visits (t = 3.665, P

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Journal of Translational Medicine
Uncontrolled Keywords:
/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2700
Subjects:
ID Code:
131033
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
04 Feb 2019 16:20
Refereed?:
Yes
Published?:
Published
Last Modified:
22 Oct 2020 05:51