Producing long-term forecasts of the development of arctic shelf

Ilinova, A. and Chanysheva, A. and Kourentzes, N. and Svetunkov, I. (2018) Producing long-term forecasts of the development of arctic shelf. In: Innovation-Based Development of the Mineral Resources Sector: Challenges and Prospects. CRC Press, DEU, pp. 539-553. ISBN 9780367077266

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Russia is a key player in the Arctic zone due to significant natural resources. Merely the presence of significant oil and gas reserves on the Arctic shelf does not guarantee the success of Russia’s oil and gas offshore projects, since a whole group of contradictory factors influence their implementation. In this article, we offer an approach and conduct an analysis of the prospects of such projects. This is done through the systematization of key factors that have positive or negative impacts on possibilities the oil and gas companies to launch Arctic projects, and the classification of key indicators for assessing their prospects. Finally, we discuss the main methods of long-term forecasting which can be applied to development of such projects. We argue that based on the factors discussed in the paper, it is possible to produce useful long-term forecasts, which can help in making decisions about the development of Arctic shelf.

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Export Date: 23 January 2019 Funding details: Russian Foundation for Basic Research, RFBR Funding details: Russian Foundation for Basic Research, RFBR, 18-010-00734 Funding text 1: The research was carried out with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR), the project “Evolution of methodology of technological forecasting of development of the interconnected industrial and social and economic systems at hydrocarbon resources development in the Arctic” No. 18-010-00734.
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29 Jan 2020 16:05
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21 Nov 2022 17:16