Changing ideas in hydrology - The case of physically-based models

Beven, Keith (1989) Changing ideas in hydrology - The case of physically-based models. Journal of Hydrology, 105 (1-2). pp. 157-172. ISSN 0022-1694

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Abstract

This paper argues that there are fundamental problems in the application of physically-based models for practical prediction in hydrology. These problems result from limitations of the model equations relative to a heterogeneous reality; the lack of a theory of subgrid scale integration; practical constraints on solution methodologies; and problems of dimensionality in parameter calibration. It is suggested that most current applications of physically-based models use them as lumped conceptual models at the grid scale. Recent papers on physically-based models have misunderstood and misrepresented these limitations. There are practical hydrological problems requiring physically-based predictions, and there will continue to be a need for physically-based models but ideas about their capabilities must change so that future applications attempt to obtain realistic estimates of the uncertainty associated with their predictions, particularly in the case of evaluating future scenarios of the effects of management strategies.

Item Type: Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of Hydrology
Uncontrolled Keywords: /dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2312
Subjects:
Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre
ID Code: 130659
Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
Deposited On: 22 Jan 2019 10:55
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 15 Sep 2019 03:25
URI: https://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/130659

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