Uncertainty analysis of the rainfall runoff model LisFlood within the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE)

Pappenberger, Florian and Beven, Keith and Roo, Ad De and Thielen, Jutta and Gouweleeuw, Ben (2004) Uncertainty analysis of the rainfall runoff model LisFlood within the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE). International Journal of River Basin Management, 2 (2). pp. 123-133. ISSN 1571-5124

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Abstract

The uncertainty of the GIS based rainfall runoff model LisFlood has been investigated within the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework. Multipliers for the saturated and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity, the porosity of the upper and lower soil layer, channel and overland flow roughness and the maximum percolation from upper to lower storages have been sampled within a Monte Carlo analysis from a uniform random distribution. With each parameter set the model has been computed with input for the 1995 flood event of the river Meuse situated in France, Belgium and The Netherlands. Eight gauging stations have been used for model evaluation by the Multicomponent Mapping (Mx method. All parameters demonstrate equifinality and no parameter set could be classified as behavioural for all the evaluation datasets. However, the results of the prediction of uncertainty percentiles on the flow are very satisfactory and encouraging. The model did further show the capability to predict the uncertainty for estimating the exceedence of threshold levels, which can be used in flood warning decision making and river basin management.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
International Journal of River Basin Management
Uncontrolled Keywords:
/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2312
Subjects:
ID Code:
129641
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
11 Dec 2018 14:02
Refereed?:
Yes
Published?:
Published
Last Modified:
01 Jan 2020 11:43