Dynamics of the 2004 avian influenza H5N1 outbreak in Thailand:The role of duck farming, sequential model fitting and control

Retkute, R. and Jewell, C.P. and Van Boeckel, T.P. and Zhang, G. and Xiao, X. and Thanapongtharm, W. and Keeling, M. and Gilbert, M. and Tildesley, M.J. (2018) Dynamics of the 2004 avian influenza H5N1 outbreak in Thailand:The role of duck farming, sequential model fitting and control. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 159. pp. 171-181. ISSN 0167-5877

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The Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 virus persists in many countries and has been circulating in poultry, wild birds. In addition, the virus has emerged in other species and frequent zoonotic spillover events indicate that there remains a significant risk to human health. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of the disease in the poultry industry to develop a more comprehensive knowledge of the risks of transmission and to establish a better distribution of resources when implementing control. In this paper, we develop a set of mathematical models that simulate the spread of HPAI H5N1 in the poultry industry in Thailand, utilising data from the 2004 epidemic. The model that incorporates the intensity of duck farming when assessing transmision risk provides the best fit to the spatiotemporal characteristics of the observed outbreak, implying that intensive duck farming drives transmission of HPAI in Thailand. We also extend our models using a sequential model fitting approach to explore the ability of the models to be used in “real time” during novel disease outbreaks. We conclude that, whilst predictions of epidemic size are estimated poorly in the early stages of disease outbreaks, the model can infer the preferred control policy that should be deployed to minimise the impact of the disease. © 2018 The Authors

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Journal Article
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Preventive Veterinary Medicine
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Export Date: 6 December 2018 CODEN: PVMEE Correspondence Address: Retkute, R.; School of Life Sciences and Institute of Mathematics, University of WarwickUnited Kingdom; email: r.retkute@warwick.ac.uk Funding details: National Institutes of Health, NIH Funding details: National Institutes of Health, NIH, 1R01AI101028-02A1 Funding details: Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, BBSRC, BB/K010972/4 Funding details: Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, BBSRC, EP/P511079/1 Funding text 1: MJT and RR are supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council and the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council [Grant Numbers EP/P511079/1 and BB/K010972/4]. XX, MG and MJT are supported by the National Institutes of Health (NIH Grant 1R01AI101028-02A1). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. 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21 Dec 2018 15:00
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