Prévision des crues éclair à l'aide de modèles mécanistes fondés sur les données et prévisions pluviométriques du système radar NORA

Smith, P. J. and Panziera, L. and Beven, K. J. (2014) Prévision des crues éclair à l'aide de modèles mécanistes fondés sur les données et prévisions pluviométriques du système radar NORA. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7). pp. 1403-1417. ISSN 0262-6667

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Abstract

Data-based mechanistic (DBM) models can offer a parsimonious representation of catchment dynamics. They have been shown to provide reliable accurate flood forecasts in many hydrological situations. In this work, the DBM methodology is applied to forecast flash floods in a small Alpine catchment. Compared to previous DBM modelling studies, the catchment response is rapid. The use of novel radar-derived ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts based on analogues to drive the DBM model allows the forecast horizon to be increased to a level useful for emergency response. The characterization of the predictive uncertainty in the resulting hydrological forecasts is discussed and a framework for its representation illustrated.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Hydrological Sciences Journal
Uncontrolled Keywords:
/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2312
Subjects:
ID Code:
128774
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
02 Nov 2018 10:00
Refereed?:
Yes
Published?:
Published
Last Modified:
09 Sep 2020 05:27