Struggling with Epistemic Uncertainties in Environmental Modelling of Natural Hazards

Beven, Keith and Younger, Philip and Freer, Jim (2014) Struggling with Epistemic Uncertainties in Environmental Modelling of Natural Hazards. In: Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk. American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), GBR, pp. 13-22. ISBN 9780784413609

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Abstract

Epistemic uncertainties create difficulties for the quantitative estimation of uncertainties associated with environmental models. The nature of the issues involved is discussed, particularly in how to assign likelihood values to models when the forcing data and evaluation data might both be subject to epistemic uncertainties. A case study of a rainfall-runoff model of the River Brue catchment is developed with the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. Model evaluation is carried out using limits of acceptability set from considerations of the available data prior to running a model, while the errors associated with a model are treated non-parametrically for different parts of the hydrograph.

Item Type:
Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings
Uncontrolled Keywords:
/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2200/2213
Subjects:
ID Code:
128759
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
02 Nov 2018 10:00
Refereed?:
Yes
Published?:
Published
Last Modified:
03 Nov 2020 13:14