Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems : a flood risk change example

Westerberg, Ida K. and Di Baldassarre, Giuliano and Beven, Keith J. and Coxon, Gemma and Krueger, Tobias (2017) Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems : a flood risk change example. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 62 (11). pp. 1705-1713. ISSN 0262-6667

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Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources–and different perceptions thereof–explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Hydrological Sciences Journal
Additional Information:
This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Hydrological Sciences Journal on 01/08/2017, available online:
Uncontrolled Keywords:
?? change analysisflood riskperceptual modelsocio-hydrologyuncertaintywater science and technology ??
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Deposited On:
02 Nov 2018 09:24
Last Modified:
25 Apr 2024 01:58