A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates

Hollaway, Michael John and Beven, Keith John and Benskin, Clare McWilliam Haldane and Collins, Adrian L and Evans, Robert and Falloon, Peter D. and Forber, Kirsty Jessica and Hiscock, Kevin M and Kahana, Ron and Macleod, Christopher J.A. and Ockenden, Mary and Villamizar, Martha L. and Wearing, Catherine Louise and Withers, Paul John Anthony and Zhou, Jian and Barber, N. J. and Haygarth, Philip Matthew (2018) A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates. Hydrological Processes, 32 (17). pp. 2779-2787. ISSN 0885-6087

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Abstract

River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Hydrological Processes
Uncontrolled Keywords:
/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2312
Subjects:
ID Code:
125830
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
13 Jun 2018 13:38
Refereed?:
Yes
Published?:
Published
Last Modified:
16 Sep 2020 04:36