Human mobility and measles

Marguta, Ramona and Parisi, Andrea (2014) Human mobility and measles. In: Proceedings of the 14th Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering, CMMSE 2014. UNSPECIFIED.

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Previous studies on measles revealed the importance of different mechanisms like external imports in disease free lands, seasonal forcing, or stochastic amplification in order to explain the dynamics observed in available datasets. We explore the relative importance of these mechanisms using a detailed geographical description of human mobility. We show the results of individual based simulations of a SIR and a SEIR model considering a gridded description of human settlements in the British Isles. Human mobility between different grid units is described by the radiation model [1]. We show that as the level of mobility is modified, the dynamics are described by multiannual, annual or biennial cycles.

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25 May 2018 13:10
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19 May 2023 13:10